U.S. in Highest-Risk Category for Civil War, Coup, or Collapse in CIA Model

JumpCrisscross 46 points 33 comments September 13, 2026
cmarmitage.substack.com · View on Hacker News

Discussion Highlights (9 comments)

huijzer

If the CIA could figure out how to stabilize a country that would be nice, but seems they know only how to destabilize countries when looking at their track record [1]. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_involvement_in_r...

well_ackshually

Breaking news: after being the biggest threat to world stability, the US realizes that their behavior is also a threat to their own stability.

FrankWilhoit

There are no blue states. There are only blue cities. If they wish to "secede", what that indicates is that they have not thought through how easy it is to block a road.

maelito

Yes, that's the impression from abroad, from Europe.

HPsquared

Always worth studying 1980s USSR.

alephnerd

Barbara Walter's model (which is what Armitage is leveraging) is deeply flawed and not the norm in most studies into autocracies and state instability. And to add on to that, Armitage himself has been a provocateur for "soft secession" (which is basically an attempt at trying to instigate a nullification crisis 2.0).

sandworm101

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_Fragile_S... This is why Trump's fight with canada is doomed: Trying to destabilize a top-10 country when your own country doesnt break the top 30.

assimpleaspossi

How does he know what the CIA's model says? How did he get this inside information? And shouldn't he now have a warrant out for his arrest for obtaining such a thing?

throw0101a

"High-risk category" sounds like something will happen in the future , but there's already been a coup attempt: * https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/January_6_United_States_Capito...

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