Checkmate in Iran

mikestew

https://archive.is/3UIBI

only-one1701

I mean what’s there to say but, well…FAFO.

chung8123

It is hard to believe this doesn't push us towards electricity for more things. It is so much less to have an electrical vehicle right now. Electrical prices have a soft cap too as solar becomes cheaper.

hebelehubele

> In a world where Iran wields influence over the energy supply of so many nations, Israel could face enormous international pressure not to provoke Tehran in Lebanon, Gaza, or anywhere else. One can hope.

tristanj

This is a silly article. It assumes the situation in the Gulf is finalized, calling the current situation "checkmate". It implies the game is finished, even when all sides know the status-quo is unsustainable. Neither side agrees to the terms of the other. The conflict, which is currently paused, is not resolved. This article is written two months into the war. We are still in the early stages. Recall the situation in Europe two months into WWII. It is November 1939, a month after the fall of Poland. A naval and economic blockade is going on. There is no fighting outside of minor naval skirmishes. The conflict is stalled. Harsh words are exchanged. Nothing important is happening. WWII entered a lull where basically nothing happened for 8 months, until the invasion of the Benelux in May 1940. We are currently in a similar lull. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phoney_War

maxglute

Better to preserve the illusion of military hegemony than to stalemate against tier2 power and remove all doubt. - Mr Rogers, probably. At least Kagan losing some sleep.

jacknews

America does have a not-such-a-complete-disaster, and probably by now quite popular, possible way out. Cut off Israel, and contain them with treaties, including nuclear non-proliferation and inspections. Unite the gulf states under that understanding, and particularly Oman, to at least share control of the strait.

infamia

Iran cannot get their oil out of their country fast enough. Iran's oil storage facilities are filling up, as evidenced by them bringing in derelict tankers just to temporarily store oil. If they have to start capping wells, they will almost certainly never produce at the same rate again, if they can start the flow at all since capping typically damages the well to some extent. If it comes to that, Iran will be permanently diminished. Hard to see how Iran will come out of this a winner as the article projects. You need money to pay for a war.