Checkmate in Iran

sleepyguy

http://archive.today/U2iiO

anenefan

I would differentiate "the US" from the "Trumpers." Trump and Co were warned via proper channels ... and that information was ignored. Trumpers were brave and full of bravado ... real gung-ho, until it dawned on them history's page note of this time frame, would be mostly be about the move towards serious adoption of other fuel alternatives, not anything the climate change deniers wanted to see. Though there have been shortages of crude previous pushing up the price, they probably could not have foreseen the camel's back was ready to break, one more knee jerk by the oil merchants pushing prices sky high days after the strait closed, practically no lag, the economy woke up that every little threat was going to be an excuse to hoist the price of fuel upwards and it was time to move towards a better situation. It might take decades but ... Mineral fuel will always have a seat at the table though.

sysreq_

On one hand this author, Robert Kagan, is best known for encouraging GWB to invade Iraq. So if anyone knows about the perils of starting a war in the Middle East it’s him. But experience is a multiplier on intellect, and zero times anything is still zero.

skissane

The more control Iran exercises over the Hormuz, the greater the motivation for the Gulf States and Iraq to build alternative transport links (oil and gas pipelines, rail) which bypass it. In the short-term, it gives Iran a big advantage, but the more they press it, the faster its value will decline. This war has accelerated the pre-existing energy transition away from oil and gas, and by threatening the Hormuz, Iran is giving that transition even more momentum. And the further that transition progresses, the less value this leverage has. This doesn't really help Trump, since his big concern is short-term political consequences (mid-terms this November and the 2028 Presidential election). But 5 years from now, Iran may find the value of its Hormuz leverage has declined significantly.