Bet on German Train Delays

anielsen

Countdown to someone pulling the emergency brake because they have a lot of money at stake

7ewis

Site is down, archive link: https://web.archive.org/web/20260303171349/https://bahn.bet/

irthomasthomas

People used to bet on ships sinking and sailors drowning. Till they learned better. Edit: This was common until Parliament passed the Marine Insurance Act of 1745. Before that, speculators could take out "wagering policies" on vessels they had no connection to. This created "coffin ships" - unseaworthy vessels sent to sea because the insurance payout for a wreck was worth more than the ship itself. The law introduced "insurable interest," meaning you cannot bet on a disaster unless you stand to lose something if it happens. This removed the incentive for sabotage and murder for profit. Modern prediction markets are heading toward the same problem. Betting on train delays or bridge collapses without having any stake gives bad actors a reason to cause it. If the cost of sabotage is lower than the payout, the market effectively pays for the disaster to happen. Whoever downvoted this wants you to ignore centuries of legal precedent designed to prevent exactly this kind of blood money. Those who ignore the lessons of the past learn wisdom in blood... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coffin_ship_(insurance)#:~:tex... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marine_Insurance_Act_1745#:~:t...

storus

Any ICE passing Frankfurt is a guaranteed 30 minute delay. Too easy to win.

eigenspace

The proliferation of online gambling is IMO one of the bigger under-reported trends in modern society, and has a real potential for massive externalities throughout society.

shafyy

> No real money is exchanged on this platform. All caßh is fictional, virtual, and entirely made up, much like Deutsche Bahn's timetable. Sick burn hahaha

asddubs

everything in this world will be turned into gambling. this stuff is a cancer on society

croisillon

for the people who wouldn't have inadvertently clicked on the website: it's not real money, it's a campaign to nudge the German provider to care about their infamous delays

amelius

Where can I bet when this will be taken down? (Asking since polymarket is forbidden in DE)

pjmlp

Yeah, unfortunely it isn't that hard to win a bit, the situation has become relatively bad with delays on average of 30m, and even need to switch trains, better have a few alternative routes at hand, as plan on how to continue the trip when a connection is lost.

lencastre

Meine Güte…

kachnuv_ocasek

Perfect for hedging the emotional damage on my daily commute in monetary units.

thisOtterBeGood

If a responsible person is reading: The confirmation link of the email-verification doesn't work (at least for me)

surrTurr

if you want to look up historic delay data (to make better guesses) you can use zugspaet: https://zugspaet.de/

ilikerashers

German trains are absolute chaos. Tickets are sent via PDF for trains running 3 hours late. I was in Frankfurt last year getting to Cologne and back a few times. Coming from someone who has to commute via South Western railway into London everyday. Sad state of affairs for Germany.

Aldipower

Oh man, det er virkelig rigtigt sjovt!!! :-D "Jurisdiction notice For legal reasons, all BahnBet users, their devices, and their emotional baggage are hereby classified as legal residents of Schleswig-Holstein, the only German state where gambling is fully permitted. This is non-negotiable. By creating an account, you have moved to Schleswig-Holstein. Your new postal code is 24103. You now speak rudimentary Danish."

maxeda

> In January 2026, Germany's federal court ruled that purchasing a Deutsche Bahn ticket constitutes a form of gambling (Glücksspiel), citing that “the probability of arriving on time is statistically comparable to a coin flip.” > Rather than contest the ruling, DBSM embraced it. If riding our trains is gambling, then passengers deserve the right to hedge. > BahnBet is our answer: a platform where you can bet against your own train, turning delays into suffering, and suffering into profit. Every minute of punctuality you lose, you can win back in deliciously valuable caßh.

exabrial

I have loved my journeys through Germany in recent years; locals are more than willing to speak English to you and are happy to direct you around. This does hit home though: I did miss an international flight due to the S-Bahn out of Munich. Eventually they were like "this train is so delayed, we're going to make everyone get off and catch the next one". ::shrugs:: ...and the Munich airport is just painful in general (the flight status boards shorten the flight numbers with ellipsis for instance).

enaaem

There people who bet way too early, and sometimes even before departure time. Like hundreds of euros. What does that mean? Mistyping? Cancellation?