US – Iran negotiations end with no deal reached

chirau

https://archive.is/gWW5N

chii

To the surprise of no one.

ndiddy

Ali Gholhaki, an Iranian journalist who often publishes first-hand news about impending developments with the IRGC, has reported that the US's demands were the removal of Iran's stockpile of enriched uranium, no nuclear enrichment whatsoever, and US management of the Strait of Hormuz. In exchange they were not offering any commitment regarding Lebanon. https://x.com/aghplt/status/2043092254416605522 Given that the US failed to seize Iran's uranium stockpile and failed to open the Strait of Hormuz militarily, I find it bizarre that they thought they would have any sort of leverage at the negotiating table regarding these demands. All the peace talks did was lower oil prices a bit for a few days.

bawolff

Not really surprising to me. Neither side had really backed down from their conflicting demands, at least publicly (albeit keeping track of what trumps public position is, is basically impossible). Maybe something different was being said privately, but it really seemed unlikely a deal would be reached. Not to mention the constraints US is under from its partners. Even if US wants to wrap things up and is willing to give Iran whatever it wants to get that, i can't imagine that gulf countries would be thrilled by iran essentially taxing their oil exports, and Israel seems pretty intent on finishing off Hezbollah. USA might have significant influence among its partners, but they aren't its puppets and are unlikely to go along with plans significantly against their own interests just because america said so.

dh2022

JD Vance will find himself under the proverbial bus in 3, 2, …

gmokki

The negotiatons can be considered a big success because Israeli leaders did not order the murder of the negotiators this time. This will open doors for more realistic negotiations in the future.

beloch

“The bad news is that we have not reached an agreement, and I think that’s bad news for Iran much more than it’s bad news for the United States of America,” Vance said. “So we go back to the United States having not come to an agreement. We’ve made very clear what our red lines are.” https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/apr/12/jd-vance-says-... -------------- It was clear the U.S. was not serious about these negotiations when they sent Vance. It's also clear the U.S. doesn't have the cards to end this conflict by force. They can use drones to clear the straight of Hormuz of mines, but that won't address all the other methods Iran has to threaten shipping. Any military measure short of the full occupation of Iran will likely fail to reopen the straight. The U.S. plainly lacks the resources to occupy a country four times the size of Iraq without allies, and the Iranians know it. The U.S. is going to have to bend on some of its red lines and actually negotiate in order to reach a deal. Many countries are standing back and waiting for the Americans to fix their own mess, but for how long will they wait? At what point do these nations lose patience with the constant economic disruption and look for coercive measures to force the U.S. back to the table?

kumarvvr

What leverage does US actually have here? Even Israel for that matter? The only options left for US are large scale bombing, like in Vietnam or Cambodia OR putting soldiers on the ground. Going on for years. Or drop a nuke. Bombing will be of limited use and extremely costly, because is Iran is too large. Its a geographical fortress, mostly large mountain ranges, or deserts. Soldiers on the ground means a large scale logistics setup, bases, buildup, etc. Its costly and deadly. US soldiers will start dying from day 1. And then, Iran has total control over the strait. It can decimate the livable conditions in the GCC countries. Mind you, Iran gets about 5% of its water from desalination plants. Almost all GCC countries get more than 50%, sometimes upto 85% of their water from desalination plants. Couple that with hits on their power infra, and the population will be left thirsty in the middle of the desert. None of them can survive without their Air conditioners and water supply. With those countries dying out, Iran emerges as the super power in the region.

submeta

Negotiation was just a pretext for preparing ground troops. Netanjahu is calling the shots here. Not Trump who sent (his son in law) Kushner and Wittkoff to „negotiate“, Kushner, whose parents have hosted Netanyahu whenever he visited the US. And he doesn’t want the war to end. He wants to destroy Iran‘s industrial infrastructure. And while this war is not over, he and Israeli figures are hinting at their next target: Türkiye.