US inflation jumps to 3.8% as energy costs surge from Iran war

rdudek

The tidbid they're not talking about are the fact that wages are down .5% https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/12/cpi-inflation-april-2026-.ht...

dennis_jeeves2

Should have been jumps BY 3.8%

sosomoxie

A completely unnecessary war that benefits no one other than Israel and harms the rest of the world. The only positive to come from this is the annihilation of US military assets in the Middle East and an even deeper unity of the world against Zionism. It’s tough times but we will ultimately defeat this heinous ideology.

doctorpangloss

energy pricing is complex. some food for thought: if everyone believes the straight of hormuz is open, even if it is not, even if 20% less oil is being moved globally, what happens to oil prices? what happens to oil deliveries? is it possible for oil to be cheap in America while Bangladesh experiences shortages, instead of everyone paying more? is oil the same as energy? or is it more relevant to transportation? does it matter? suburban life is quite comfortable, a LOT of people keep choosing big single family home with yard, drive everywhere. driving everywhere is VERY comfortable. a lot of people like it. are they willing to pay more for it? does buying a house that is MUCH cheaper by virtue of being far away from a city stop making sense for 250m americans just because gas is 50% more expensive?

ck2

now imagine this going on through January 2029 if Dems don't win the Senate too because it took YEARS for Obama's team to get them to sign something and he's already used up half of US war stockpiles Iran's dictators will eat and sleep just fine for years while their people starve and get bombed to death click on YTD here and imagine that flat-line for YEARS https://en.macromicro.me/charts/94482/imf-strait-of-hormuz-n...

dwa3592

I understand it is a complicated calculation but to me personally, inflation feels much more than that. I have been tracking the price of milk. Around 3 months ago, i was getting a gallon of milk at $2.97, then it went up to 3.07, then 3.25. Yesterday I paid 3.40. That's like 15% gain on something as basic as milk. All numbers from the same store.

khriss

I can't think of a single way in which the United States came out ahead in the war. We have * Demonstrated that the US simply can't offer any meaningful security guarantee to it's middle east partners. * Permanently ceded de facto control over the straits of Hormuz to Iran * Significantly strengthened the hardliners in the Iranian regime and cleared the way for them to have absolute power by eliminating all moderates * Spiked inflation at home and doubled down on pissing off pretty much every single country except Russia by heaping sky rocketing energy costs on them * Exposed the perilous state of of the defense industrial base (in spite of us spending more than the next 10 countries combined). We simply can't produce enough military hardware to sustain a sustained conflict with a country like Iran. I shudder to think just how badly we will be outmatched in a shooting war with China. All of this to get to a point where we are negotiating a deal which is worse than what we already had with the JCPOA. I think we will look back on this as the US version of the Suez crisis, the beginning of the end of the US empire.

philipnee

this is core inflation no? it's interesting that it doesn't account for food and energy. so likely much higher in reality...

hendo3000

I've always rolled my eyes at inflation because clearly, it's worse than the basket of goods they use to monitor. Groceries probably get incentives to keep bread, eggs, etc. prices somewhat regulated so the inflation number is muted. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Goodhart%27s_law

bparsons

Frankly, it is a miracle that inflation is this low. Markets have not fully metabolized the impact from the closure of the Persian Gulf.

kome

"US inflation jumps to 3.8% as energy costs surge from Iran war" and all of this to support apartheid in israel.

legitster

BTW, the conflict is unlikely to resolve soon. The US has literally never honored a deal with Iran. Iran has no reason to negotiate with the US. The US either has to back down, put boots on the ground, or sit and wait. If the government survives, they had a quiet infrastructure investment from China they can activate to rebuild their damaged facilities.

bix6

What I don’t understand is how the stock market can be so decoupled from reality. It’s a game at this point and completely disconnected from reality. Everything should be down 20%+ given oil is an input to everything and yet stocks are ATHing.

cosmicgadget

Well unlike when he and Jerome Powell unleashed the money printer on us in 2020 and it took most of Biden's term to tame inflation, this should last as long as the Iran war. Unless there's a permanent shift in the strait or sticky consumer prices overcome the efficient market.

exabrial

Congress needs to be forbidden from ever raise debt ceiling again. When they run out of money, the first they have to cut is their own wages, then the wages of federal staffers that serve them, then their healthcare, their benefits, everything that serves THEM gets cut first.

pupppet

The mental gymnastics Trump supporters must go through to justify blaming Biden for gas prices during his term but blaming everyone but Trump for gas prices now. Not in the US but I'll go out on a limb and guess that gas stations aren't being littered with 'I Did That!" Trump stickers.

keernan

"With productivity rising at a brisk pace, the share of national income that goes to workers has sunk to its lowest point on record" https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/12/business/economy/cpi-infl...

fulafel

These problems are very small compared to mounting death toll from the climate disaster. We are very late in ramping down fossils production but a far greater badness will come if we keep postponing it.

johnea

Here on HN, I can't image this being interpreted as anything but a good thing. Petro prices up - oil companies make more money Interest rates up - banks make more money Win Win! What could possibly be the problem? If you're one of the little people paying for it all, you should be Proud™ to fulfill your role of enriching ownership...

tsoukase

The decades long observation seems to hold gain: Reps were always near the oil-military complex and their main policy after elections always aims to offer them huge profits. An almost theatrical war with a puppet oil producing country achieves all goals. They don't care about people, environment or the world. It will last as long as their benefits outweigh their costs.