Threat of AI share crash puts world financial stability at risk, says IMF

simianwords

If AI share crashes, that’s actually good for the public because all the value is now captured by them instead of companies. This is because a crash can only happen if prices go down (which is good) or Chinese models become as good as frontier (which is also good). The question is, if this happens then how do you incentivise more R and D? Which investor would invest without the returns? Edit: not surprisingly people don’t understand the point. Would you rather NVIDIA and OpenAI get rich and capture the value or the public? Such a strange thing to see people rooting for the big companies.

bestouff

Who would have guessed ?

singingwolfboy

https://archive.ph/dAI6p

cmiles8

With an AI bubble implosion now all but inevitable, the shift of the key players behind the scenes has focused on making this seem too big to fail and thus needing a bailout. The “it’s dangerous, regulate us please” angle as an out for explaining terrible financial performance doesn’t seem to be working. The final Hail Mary pass is the “if we fail you fail” play. However all data indicates the risk here is fairly concentrated in private markets. It will be painful but it’s unlikely to take the whole economy out with it. Some VCs are in for a world of hurt and private credit markets will lose their shirts, but the average person would see limited direct impact. With everything going on in the datacenter space a bailout for AI seems incredibly unlikely. The general sentiment amongst the masses seems to be “let it burn.”

jeisc

AI build out goes on until the universe is filled with AI robots reporting back to us

ambione

surely the working man won't pay the price for this one too, like every other crash

xvxvx

Pretty much everyone knows this is going to crash and make life difficult for everyday people. It’s a cash grab by desperate liars.

Gys

Too big to fail, by intention

armcat

So I'm reading the actual IMF reports itself [1] and I come across this on the first page: "First, although core firms in the AI ecosystem have been profitable so far—easing pressure on AI-related equity valuations—weaker or less durable investment and profitability in AI could trigger a correction" Is that correct - that the AI firms have been "profitable"? [1] https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2026/oct...

noja

The only business model left: grow so big you need a bailout.

feverzsj

As I predicted, it shall crash right after midterm election.

laser

Reading the comments here makes me feel this is such an interesting blip of time we're living through right now. On the one hand it's treated like an open secret that we're nearing the end of an AI bubble that even the IMF is flagging as a risk as reality doesn't live up to the hype. On the other hand the capability of systems in just the last two months has improved so much that it feels like the average hype undersells what's happening right now but that knowledge is extremely unequally distributed as the greatest capabilities are most familiar to software engineers that have fully embraced agentic coding, which even earlier this year was still somewhat questionable but now is too highly productive to avoid. The question I have is if everyone is this bearish on AI stocks are they not more likely than not to move against consensus much higher?

senectus1

aaaaahhahahahahahaha!!! nice place you got here, be a shame if something happened to it....

arisAlexis

threat that is only in the minds of the investors really, Kahneman at his best. Psychology driven 100%. Profits are there and humongous but narrative is decoupled with fear.

novaRom

The debt lasts longer than GPUs remain profitable, right? GPUs loose value most quicker than most investors believe. In best case they last like 2-3 years under heavy stress, so I think about all those data centers and what will it mean to replace those cards burned down - you cannot even replace one with newer one - all 8 GPUs should be the same type. Thinking about future costs with all the debt.

PaulKeeble

I keep looking at the openrouter token charts and its exponential growth. Month on month they out out more and more tokens and critically the quality of those tokens keeps increasing as well. The charts are led entirely by the chinese open weight models like deepseek v4.1 flash and Z.AI's GLM-5.3 with Claude and GPT down in 6th and 7th place. So while I think a number of these companies are never getting their training costs back AI as a thing is growing really fast right now, in the space of a year openrouter has 100x their token creation.