The US grocery slowdown is real

jackyinger

Woah… price elasticity of demand is real… who knew? /s

Avicebron

They should just lead with people don't have any money to buy things because wages aren't increasing to match living expenses. It cuts back some of the fig leaves

alephnerd

What is interesting is the subnational breakdown - volumes have been decreasing in the US West for over a year compared to the rest of the US, and overall sales have also decreased as well whereas they are stagnant in the rest of the US.

mmh0000

Oh Man. The author couldn't even write their own headline. Thanks LLM!

qdotme

Or.. is it a GLP-1 byproduct? These are powerful appetite suppressants.. in fact I'm curious if the mechanism of action of these peptides affects other impulse behavior, including impulse purchasing? We know that people buy more when they are hungry. They also buy more when the smells of food are in the store (the other benefit of rotisserie chicken).

bloaf

Obesity rates have been declining over the same time period.

gustavus

> Our analysis of NielsenIQ grocery data shows a trend in negative unit growth starting in mid-2025, masked by steady price increases. But since February 2026, units have stepped down sharply enough to pull sales lower across the US. Prices are still climbing 2% to 3% year over year, Seems pretty straightforward. They increased their price to try and make up for losses, which in turn mean less people purchasing, which they responded to by increasing prices. A lovely little circle. Maybe some economists should investigate how prices effects demand, could be groundbreaking.

anukin

People underestimate the impact of glp1 drugs on this. They should also correlate with decline in fast food consumption.

tencentshill

Trump put a little orange thumb on the scale by choosing Walmart to be the winner on beef prices. Did they weigh for government interference? https://www.usatoday.com/story/grocery/2026/07/08/walmart-ro...

the__alchemist

Is delivery services accounted for? I buy 1/3 I did a year ago, as Amazon's services are so convenient, and not much more expensive. (Especially since I throw out less now)

JoeAltmaier

Shelves are fairly spotty in my town. Never saw that before, not in 50 years.

kart23

cooking one or two portions at home using quality ingredients from stores in SF is literally as pricey as eating out nowadays. doesn't surprise me that people are trying to get their dollars to stretch further by buying in bulk, planning ahead more consciously, etc.

Wonnk13

I'm not surprised. K shaped economy, any sector that isn't high tech / AI is stagnant. It's rough out there. I've been saying since Covid, retailers have figured out some consumers aren't as price sensitive as previously thought. WholeFoods doesn't need to cut prices, but the lower tier grocery stores will really feel the cutbacks.

jmyeet

Journalist Alfred Henry Lewis said over a century ago that civilization is only 9 meals away from anarchy. I fear in the coming years we are going to be testing that theory. Another quote that springs to mind is "Corporations behave like they're annoyed that they have to go through you to get to your money". The pandemic was a catalyst for a change in attitude by American corporations who were afraid to raise prices. That fear is now gone. Every aspect of corporations now are dedicated to raising prices and the easiest thing to raise prices on is things with inelastic demand. Food, housing, electricity. It's the entire basis of private equity, which seeks "pricing power". That's just another way of saying "inelastic demand". All of this has been exacerbated by a pointless, unwinnable foreign war in Iran at the behest of a foreign state (ie Israel). The only thing thus far that has prevented a global economic collapse is China [1] but that is about to bite because the US SPR is about to hit the effective minimum [2]. And now the issue isn't going to be crude oil but shortages of refined petroleum products, particularly diesel. You can see this by looking at the 3-2-1 Crack Spread [3], which itself is also going to get worse because of the destruction of an estimated 40% of Russia's refining capacity, which has already resulted in halting diesel exports. Diesel prices are a huge factor in inflation [4]. Another lagging issue here is that much of the crops planted in the northern hemisphere this year received less or no fertilizer because of the Iran war. That's likely to cause a famine impacting tens of millions of people and will further drive up food prices. Rents keep going up. Food prices keep going up. Inflation keeps going up. The one thing that doesn't keep going up are wages. And people are rapidly running out of money to absorb it. And the American government that is inflicting this on not only the US but really the world, does not care. [1]: https://www.indiatoday.in/business/story/china-oil-imports-i... [2]: https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-stocks-us-strate... [3]: https://rbnenergy.com/market-data/3-2-1-crack-spread [4]: https://realeconomy.rsmus.com/market-minute-diesel-trucking-...

realityfactchex

Theoretically I'm kinda rich, but I feel the crunch at the grocery store. I buy the highest quality, lowest cost stuff I can find. There can be a positive story here maybe though: - More doordash = less grocery - More farmer's market = less grocery - More home-grown = less grocery Though TFA points out, 80% of Americans say they're still trying to spend less 28% are actively trying to cut back on groceries 56% are trading down to lower-priced brands 49% are simply buying fewer items, 44% are leaning harder on coupons and promotions BTW my nearest grocery shut down this quarter. Couldn't make money. Got to go farther now.

eth0up

Is the whole Straight of Hormuz fertilizer shortage just FUD, or should we be preparing to see this "real"ness get a lot more real in the coming months or season? I think it's a legitimate concern, and just one of many problems. Couple that with inflation (yes, and rising costs self compounding), petrol problems, pressure on the dollar, income stagnation, loads of other fun things and the wondrous introduction of LLM magic into every orifice of society, where should we expect this all leads to? I am always looking for reasons to let my inner optimist shine through. Help, anyone? Edit: I expect I will be chastened by vegans for the following, but.. I no longer buy milk. Organic milk up from an astonishing ~$5 to an average of $7.50 per gallon now. I do not buy much meat, but beef is no longer an option. Yeah, it was subsidized, but that doesn't mean it's getting more affordable. But really, I can no longer afford fresh vegetables. And though I lean vegetarian, that is quickly becoming an unhealthy option.

djoldman

The variation in prices of staple foods between different stores has exploded in Chicago. For what it's worth, Aldi is significantly cheaper for many items. It's gotten a lot busier there too.

xnx

Consumers have been optimizing for convenience over being value shoppers. Grocery prices at Aldi, Walmart, Costco are amazingly low, especially when accounting for the freshness, quality, and variety of foods today vs. 30 years ago.

entrepy123

The 18-month data charts in TFA don't give much information for comparing "this" with the past. I wish it went back 30 or 50 years. I like that the default view is units sold, looks like 2026 is a worse year for grocery stores compared with last year. Sales dollars is still growing, though slower that it grew in the past, and apparently only by jacking up prices. So here's page with a line chart and downloadable CSV data, with a ~79 year lookback best as could quickly be found [0]: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DFXARA3Q086SBEA In short: Don't worry, this one is just a 1974 or 2008 or 1992 or 1981 style blip. Hopefully. It always recovered before. (Before 1947, data is sketchy/excluded though.) People did wait in soup and bread lines in the 1930s, I think. Check the online libraries, you'll find entire books from the early 1900s on how to make economical tasty meals on a shoestring budget. We can do better. But it's not going to be by relying on large corps to help us out, probably. It's going to be by reinventing the systems that are utterly broken. [0] U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Real personal consumption expenditures: Nondurable goods: Food and beverages purchased for off-premises consumption (chain-type quantity index). Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, FRED. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DFXARA3Q086SBEA

mythrwy

I'm just one small data point, and significantly in the minority I'm sure, but I got chickens and started gardening hard 4 or 5 years ago and get around 1/3 of my food from there.