The Hormuz Hypothesis – What If the U.S. Navy Isn't in a Hurry to Reopen Hormuz?

jgalt212

original title was too long: The Hormuz Hypothesis – What If the U.S. Navy Isn’t in a Hurry to Reopen the Strait?

PaulHoule

“The bottleneck is not political. It is geological and hydrographic.” … and then … “The binding constraint on Hormuz was never a minefield or insurance. It is the US Navy’s willingness and ability to reopen it.”

gotorazor

A two-week old perspective looking more like a 2-year old perspective.

jleyank

If this argument is true, who will pay the toll? Europe or the Gulf states or both? Oil is a global market, but the suppliers have to get to market. And the Gulf states sit behind a gate via a vis the straits.

karmakaze

I heard a similar analysis by an episode of Predictive History[0]. Only watched the first 15 minutes so far where it gets to where the US country/those in power (not population) benefits. [0] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xrmERlHUqBk

zug_zug

Just seems like baseless speculation, another attempt to rationalize what occam's razor can much more easily explain with long-established egomania or senility.

up2isomorphism

A big factor the author ignored, is this potential “strategy” he speculates no longer works in a multi-polar world, especially when there is a thing called China. It is not exactly true if reopening Hormuz is simply a will of US or not. The damage of loosing even 1 carrier is much much higher than 20 years ago because of this. But US force itself to play this unfavorable game that its enemies can not even dream about.

ZeroGravitas

An unironic 4D chess claim! You don't see them much anymore.

bediger4000

This is just a MAGA True Believer doing hermeneutics. It's little better than Qanona "baking" Q drops.

soared

The theory is completely debunked, as ships are passing through now but not because the US allows it, but because Iran selectively allows it. Theory is moot. https://gcaptain.com/controlled-passage-first-ships-edge-thr...

cosmicgadget

The 4d chessmaster who screams he is going to 'reign' fire on his opponent after claiming he has checkmate already. It quacks way more like a duck.