The AI Superforecasters Are Here

datadrivenangel

If the forecasting models were so good that people were actually consistently beating prediction markets, they wouldn't be starting startups to be selling it. And even if it is good enough, once you're shelling out thousands of dollars a year in research costs, does that give you any remaining alpha?

alecco

This new forecasting industry is pushed by very dirty people.

AIorNot

For Pete’s sake lets outlaw prediction markets already instead of hyping them in crappy greed-posts like this one I am embarrassed this “rationalist, I’m so much smarter than you, so I know better” asshole Scott Alexander hasn't been skewered yet for promotion of gambling (prediction markets) that people like Trumps son are making millions of on https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/ng-interactive/2026/may/...

estetlinus

I kinda like Taleb’s take on forecasters; get another job.

recitedropper

Tell me you don't understand Taleb without telling me you don't understand Taleb.

glimshe

I used AI to forecast that AI forecasters won't beat the market. We can move on now.

pfortuny

This is not even dumb. Unbelievable coming from act....

brcmthrowaway

So this person was known for thoughtful blog posts, but has since become a total AI booster. It's probably a gonzo-like effect through the various subcultures he aims to explore, but it paints a very bad picture of them. Imagine if Louis Theroux became a scientologist.

jrowen

Is there a future where AI takes all of these no-value arbitrage games to their limit and there is no longer a market for this type of behavior?

VMG

Here’s my dystopian sci-fi scenario: As prediction markets already show, forecasts can influence the outcomes they are trying to predict. What happens when these models become extremely accurate and widely trusted? A forecast like “Will there be a war between countries A and B?” may itself affect whether the war happens. If the model says there is a 1% chance of war, little changes. But if it says 90%, governments, markets, militaries, and the public may react: capital flees, troops mobilize, diplomatic trust collapses, and each side starts preparing for the other side’s preparation. The prediction helps make itself true. The same feedback loop could apply to bank runs, market crashes, civil unrest, elections, and corporate failures. At some point, the most accurate forecaster may become less like an observer and more like an actor with enormous power over the system it predicts.

guardiangod

Given a powerful enough AI with enough outlays (eg. a Playwright instant), can an AI cheat by influencing the real world and self-fulfil its prediction? Eg. Is corp ABC's stock price going to go down by 10% in 30 days? Orchestrate a disinformation campaign on the 29th day to tank ABC's stock price.

mikgp

It feels like Scott is taking the bull case here - but like “perfect” information will pervert markets in bizarre ways. As soon as the prediction market says “this path here has a 25% chance of curing cancer” all sorts of money is moved away from other things. It will absolutely cause political outcomes not just predict them. And then of course there’s the cheating element. Anything that’s feasible to change the outcome. Maybe this just contributes to efficient markets? Or maybe the continued quests towards utopia have dystopic externalities.

largbae

Prediction markets are just the new ICO, NFT, SPAC etc scam/gambling(scambling?). Play if you want, and call yourself a genius if you win, but only with money you can afford to lose.