Tech employment now significantly worse than the 2008 or 2020 recessions

whimsicalism

the 2020 ‘recession’ wasn’t really bad for tech employment at all

GenerWork

There's still the hangover from free Covid money. I think the number one reason that it feels worse is that there's a LOT more people in the industry now than back in 2020. Much more competition than before.

kaeruct

https://xcancel.com/JosephPolitano/status/202991636466461124...

palmotea

The ideal software engineer will code himself out of a job and be happy about it. Be that ideal. The shareholders are counting on you!

RivieraKid

Interesting, this shows growth in open positions: https://www.trueup.io/job-trend

teagee

The chart in the tweet represents year-on-year growth. Based on these figures alone the actual number of people employed in tech is still really high, and the numbers can't just go up forever. Also this only captures 6 industries, which is a narrow view of what would define "tech" these days. Not to say that the job market isn't tough but this graph is a very narrow view

Oras

Tech hiring is bad, for sure, but the the graph does not make a clear picture. What is software publishers category? As it seems it’s picking up while Computer system design is the largest negative impact. I would appreciate if there was a better chart explaining sort of roles and locations that had the largest impact

mattas

It sure looks like during the ZIRP era, tech substantially overhired. Post-ZIRP companies are correcting that (but under the guise of AI).

mjr00

In my experience, tech employment is incredibly bimodal right now. Top candidates are commanding higher salaries than ever, but an "average" developer is going to have an extremely hard time finding a position. Contrary to what many say, I don't think it's simple as seniors are getting hired and juniors aren't. Juniors are still getting hired because they're still way cheaper and they're just as capable as using AI as anyone. The people getting pushed out are the intermediates and seniors who aren't high performers.

nphardon

Seems like my co is shedding US jobs and moving them to Taiwan, and paying up to 75% less in salary.

roxolotl

How’s it compare to 2000 though? Tech was ascendant in 2008 so not surprised to hear it didn’t do too badly then and in 2020 while people panicked tech again had a much easier time keeping people on remotely. EDIT: posted below as well https://xcancel.com/JosephPolitano/status/202991636466461124... There’s a longer term graph in the thread. We’ve got a long way to go before we hit 2000 numbers which is what I’d expected.

ppeetteerr

Those are raw numbers. I would look instead at the job changes over total employment numbers. I don't have the numbers but I would wager we have many more people working in tech today (overall) than we did in 2008. Also, that spike in 21/22 really did a number on people's expectations. The one constant in this industry is its cyclical nature.

alephnerd

As I previously mentioned, based on person experience assumptions around hiring have changed due to the Twitter layoffs, demands for FCF positivity, and WFH inadvertently justifying offshoring [0], not necessarily due to interest rate changes. --- As I also mentioned, the only way you can survive in American tech at this point is to: 1. Move to a Tier 1 tech hub like the Bay and NYC. If you get laid off, you will probably find another job in a couple of weeks due to the density of employers. Seattle used to be a good option, but WA's norms around noncompete clauses incentivize larger employers which reduces the ability for startups to truly scale. 2. Start coming into the office 2-3 days a week. It's harder to layoff someone you have had beers or coffee with. Worst case, they can refer you to their friends companies if you get laid off 3. Upskill technically. Learn the fundamentals of AI/ML and MLOPs. Agents are basically a semi-nondeterministic SaaS. Understanding how AI/ML works and understanding their benefits and pitfalls make you a much more valuable hire. 4. Upskill professionally. We're not hiring code monkeys for $200K-400K TC. We want Engineers who can communicate business problems into technical requirements. This means also understanding the industry your company is in, how to manage up to leadership, and what are the revenue drivers and cost centers of your employer. Learn how to make a business case for technical issues. If you cannot communicate why refactoring your codebase from Python to Golang would positively impact topline metrics, no one will prioritize it. 5. Live lean, save for a rainy day, and keep your family and friends close. If you're not in a financial position to say "f##k you" you will get f##ked, and strong relationships help you build the support system you need for independence. The reality is the current set of layoffs and work stresses were the norm in the tech industry until 2015-22. We live in a competitive world and complaining on HN does nothing to help your material condition. [0] - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47174561

kittikitti

Although the graph lists BLS data as the source, it's hard for me to find the specific datasets that back it up. It's March 2026 and the graph indicates it would encapsulate 2025. In fact, the "Software Development Job Postings on Indeed in the United States" indicate something different, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1T60O I was able to find the following: - Software Publishers https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SMU06000005051320001 - Regional data available only, numerous national statistics are discontinued - California region matches up, but places like Boston don't https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SMU25000005051320001 - Computing Infrastructure Providers https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CES5051800001 - Matches up perfectly, no notes here. - Computer Systems Design https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CES6054150001 - However, the graph in the tweet doesn't include the February data (even though it claims "recent") which shows an increase - Web Search Portals https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CES5051900001 - Matches up, but February data isn't in the graph which shows an increase from January - Streaming Services https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SMU06000005051620001 - Doesn't include January or February 2026 data, doesn't match up with graph in tweet I wasn't able to find the following: - Custom Computer Programming Services There are numerous open questions in this analysis which I would need to be addressed before drawing any conclusions. My gut feeling would love to accept it at face value but I never trust my gut.

wnolens

Anyone else's inbox slammed with recruiters, more than it ever has been in the past? Feels like there's 10x the jobs available, but perhaps it's just that LLMs have automated a recruiter's job and they're letting the slop fly

caesil

Misleading title. The change in tech employment is worse, but actual tech employment remains high thanks to the massive 2021-2023 hiring spree.

Trasmatta

Purely anecdotal, but I'm a senior engineer with about 15 years of experience and a decently impressive resume. In the past, I almost always get to at least the interviewing stage, and have frequently received multiple offers at the same time. Recruiters used to spam me constantly. I haven't heard from a recruiter in probably 6 months. I recently put my feelers out and applied to a handful of positions I was qualified for, and got rejection letters from all of them.

Ancalagon

Hm what about the Citadel rebuttal that showed growth? https://www.citadelsecurities.com/news-and-insights/2026-glo...

rvz

Yet, no-one here is talking about building a start up. Which is the actual answer.

stackedinserter

Are there real positions these days? I get rejection for every single position that I apply to. Often I read literally a description of myself in job posting, and it's still "we decided to no move forward". At the same time, I hire people and see that 8/10 candidates are just trash. Not in the sense they "are not aligned", or "emit wrong vibes", or other bs. They literally can't write a single line of code, on their own laptop, in their own IDE. Make it make sense.