Show HN: I built a tool that helps predict HN front page success
Hey HN community, I built a tool that helps optimize your post for hitting the first page of Show HN. How it works: I used a Hugging Face dataset of all Hacker News posts from the past 3 years and trained a model that predicts how successful your post might be. There's still a lot of randomness on HN, so nothing is guaranteed, but the tool helps optimize your post for higher odds. A couple of interesting findings: - GitHub repo links work x3 better than regular domains - Open-source tools have a steady virality rate (13.9% - one of the highest) - "I built" outperforms "We built" - Using parentheses and mentioning technologies (Lua, Postgres, Rust, etc.) helps a ton. You can try the tool at wannalaunch.com or read the blog posts for more insights from the analysis. The model is also available as open source if you want to retrain it or look under the hood. Happy to hear the feedback!
Discussion Highlights (13 comments)
_pdp_
The formula is pretty well known but it does not work in this forum due to tight moderator control and shadow banning.
jofzar
Kind of funny to have your own post be 49/100 https://imgur.com/a/KyXNICb
prodigycorp
Idk how to make it more obvious that you’ve used a vote ring than 15 votes in ten minutes.
gobdovan
Interestingly enough, you're #1, but your model ran on: - Title: Show HN: I built a tool that helps predict HN front page success - URL: https://wannalaunch.com/ Only gave you a 49 out of 100. And gave this advice: `Consider adding a parenthetical. Top Show HN titles often include one: "(written in Rust)", "(open source)", "(YC W25)".`
gverrilla
Show HN: I built a bicycle that runs on my fridge (written in Rust) https://github.com/bike-fridge Show HN 100/100
brazukadev
you should have posted the github link and mentioned that it was built using React then.
NitpickLawyer
> A couple of interesting findings: Heh, I'll add a few: - Apple finds LLMs can't [blank]: +100 points - Something AI something bad / makes you stupid / can't think / losing your touch: +200 points - Something spaceman bad: +30 flags in 10 minutes - Something simple but sounding modern (1992): +1000 points
embedding-shape
Funny how different people have different understandings of "success" :) This seems to mention the score and how likely something is to be on the frontpage, none of those things would mean "success" to me. The value from Show HN isn't from the eyeballs, your website analytics reaching higher than before or the score of the HN submission, the value sits in the conversations and discussions you'll end up having in the comments, how you think about all of those things afterwards and what you end up acting on. There are few communities where you can (hopefully constructively) criticize a project and also receive proper criticism of your project, usually backed by real arguments rather than just emotional pleas, HN is one of these, and I'd say Show HN is the place where you can really receive good and actionable feedback as long as you're also able to look past and ignore the less thoughtful comments.
rvz
I just stopped my stopwatch and it took 18 mins for this post to get cancelled and removed from the front page because....it won the front page. Good game.
ivere27
I think, it's better to focus on the contents then the formula.
sschueller
Let's see if this work. I just posted something that got a score of 83/100. I doubt it will. From everything I have posted, it's quite random what sparks peoples interest. It really depends on many factors such as what the topics where in the last weeks and on current events.
xnx
Seems like you should've linked to https://github.com/mrimek/hn-virality-predictor ?
ThrowawayR2
Simply adhering the Show HN guidelines is a much better predictor of success than any of that: https://news.ycombinator.com/showhn.html