Show HN: Did prediction markets do any predicting this midterms?
I've heard so much about how prediction markets are the guiding light in this dark world. But when put head to head against polls or Nate Silver's FLIPR model, they are really a wash. Especially looking at flipped or close-by-polls races, there is no alpha compared to a traditional poll-based model. Was this obvious to everyone else too? Can we treat them like the entertainment they are and tax them for the terrible ads?
Discussion Highlights (5 comments)
shizcakes
What’s with the mouse cursors? I can barely read this on mobile because it’s covered with “guest” pointers
devin
Neat idea, thanks. Why show the cursors on here? I found them somewhat distracting and am not sure what purpose they're serving.
closetkantian
I agree this is unreadable
Grimburger
Seems like someone is trolling hn, holy moly that web design
Shank
I really think the main factor in determining if prediction markets are valuable is their predictions from outside election day. Once the “blue tsunami” was “expected” most of the markets shot overwhelmingly in one direction as the night wrapped up. You need to have a boundary for comparison that isn’t influenced by election night. Starting at 5AM is a decent cut point but I would argue the final poll date is the best comparison. Love or hate PolyMarket, it should be on this list too.