Sea level much higher than assumed in most coastal hazard assessments

sebmellen

The saddest part of global turmoil around AI, Iran war, etc. is how dramatically climate change has disappeared from the 'global conversation'. This is not something we can afford to ignore for much longer.

metalman

Watch your warming oceans expand in real time here https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today above shows what may be the earliest ever peak sea ice and https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/products/ocean/sst/contour/ and the one above is absolutly terrifying , or should be to wanabe hegemnons thinking that the naritive, is thiers.

measurablefunc

In almost every fictional story¹ dealing w/ near future outcomes every author just assumes that Miami & New York are under water. ¹ https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Ministry_for_the_Future

pjmlp

We just started another war with unforeseen consequences to the planet, while destroying all resources to feed the AI monster, forget about all those paper straws.

mmooss

> ... 90% of the hazard assessments assume coastal sea levels based on geoid models, rather than using actual sea-level measurements. > A geoid is an equipotential surface model that approximates MSL based on gravity and the rotation of Earth. As geoid quality depends on gravity observations, uncertainties in global geoid models can range up to several metres in regions that suffer from gravitational data paucity ..., predominantly located in the Global South. Moreover, actual sea-surface height is not just determined by the gravity and rotation of Earth, but also by, for example, ocean currents and large-scale circulation, winds, tides, seawater temperature and salinity. As a result, time-average sea-surface height can deviate strongly (up to several metres) from a geoid, and its difference is the so-called mean dynamic topography (MDT). I don't quite grasp how those flaws in geoid models lead to an overall significant underestimation of sea-level. Shouldn't all those average out? > uncertainties in global geoid models Why would those tend toward underestimation? > sea-surface height is not just determined by the gravity and rotation of Earth, but also by, for example, ocean currents and large-scale circulation, winds, tides, seawater temperature and salinity. Other than temperature and maybe salinity, those factors move water in a closed system: increasing water one place reduces it in another (?). > time-average sea-surface height can deviate strongly Why would average deviation by positive and not zero or negative?

fred_is_fred

Over the past 5 or so years, I've seen population projections missed over and over. Growth is slowing and it's slowing faster than projected. Almost every projection is too high. Does that have any impact on climate change rates? Or is it a wash because societies with shrinking populations are using more resources? I've not been able to find much research here.