P(doom)
lumpa
42 points
16 comments
September 12, 2026
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Discussion Highlights (7 comments)
demibabs
I’m not the biggest fan of Ed Zitron, but something he said that stuck with me is: OpenAI and Anthropic spend much time warning us about “what if powerful AIs got into the wrong hands?” But it’s already in the wrong hands.
passive
This is the closest to my feelings about this entire situation I've ever seen written, covering a lot of the different facets of how stupid and painful it is (though it's been a good week for that kind of post.) Since I have incredible respect for Armin and his work, this is very nice to see, and I hope it wakes some other folk up.
1986
He really elides his thoughts on the "RSI business", wish he could have gone into a bit more depth there. Good post, though.
esafak
wtf?? P(doom) relates to https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Existential_risk_from_artifici... How would open source models bring about a MAD between humans and AI? By enabling us to wield aligned AI against nonaligned AI? If so, he should say so, and elaborate how open source models further that goal.
chis
> I don’t think AI is going to usher in an extinction event. In fact, even if nobody were to slow down, I really don’t think humanity would have much to worry about. I mean sure. If you feel that way then your p doom is zero, and it makes sense to worry about things like market concentration or losing the fun of software engineering.
cat-whisperer
I agree. It is telling that Dario's post arrived after Astra. The call to "pace the frontier" may come from genuine concern, but it also protects the position of companies already at the frontier. That competitive incentive is hard to separate from the safety argument.
ilyaizen
There are really only two companies: Anthropic and OpenAI. Nobody else matters in this space right now (this might change, but we’re talking about the right now). I like how he so casually dismissed all other labs, including leading US labs that might be nearing RSI right now. And how he treats 'right now' so rigidly, as if seven years ago, when GPT-2 was released, was some distant past.