OpenAI's Ad Business Is on Pace to Miss Its Own Forecast by 90%, Analyst Says

onetokeoverthe

the ad business is dead and openai's brand is toxic.

moezd

So, how do their overall financials look these days?

d--b

What a shitty title. “An analyst thinks OpenAI may miss its 2030 ad revenue target by 90%” is what the article says.

feverzsj

People heavily relying on LLM literally live in a Truman show.

ArtTimeInvestor

Emarketer’s data finds that standalone chatbots like ChatGPT, Microsoft Copilot app, Google AI Mode, and Amazon Alexa for Shopping (formerly Rufus) in U.S, will generate less than $1 billion in ad revenue this year, and just $5.41 billion by 2030. How would that be possible? In the past I used Google maybe 10 times a day with a short query. From which Google had to guess my intent. Now I babble with Gemini all day about everything. And Gemini can ask questions what exactly I mean. Why wouldn't Alphabet be able to generate more revenue from this than from search? And Google's ad revenue from search is over $100B per year. Just because there are no ads now does not mean there never will be. Google search was run without ads for the first years too.

rswail

Using "on pace to miss its own forecast" is a weird way of phrasing "OpenAI made it up to bullshit the rubes". Not to mention that being "on pace" is usually a term that means "keeping pace with".

ChicagoDave

Does anyone at OpenAI know how to run a business?

dependsontheq

There are only two successful ad business forms in the digital world, attention or intent. Meta is built on attention and Google and others like amazon are built on intent. Everything else is optimizing the targetting data in some kind of behavioral way to get better intent data or to reach the right users. I have no idea where something like Chatgpt stands on that axis, it has actually very little attention (in hours per day) for most people and I am not sure that it has enough intent signals.

Havoc

Wouldn't be surprised if there is utter panic behind the scenes. They somehow need to corner many billions of business meanwhile chinese labs reckon they'll have fable class models by end of the year. [0] That does not leave a lot of room for mistakes. I reckon they'll get government to block chinese models just like the US car industry did with EVs. https://www.tomshardware.com/tech-industry/artificial-intell...

ozlikethewizard

Ignoring whether or not OpenAI can reach this, do we think a massive expansion of ad revenue is fruit of the poisonous tree for GPTs? Does anyone want to use a tool that is capable of disguising an ad as a geniune recommendation at anytime? I suppose if the platforms become super entrenched and we boil slowly then they'll get away with it

sauercrowd

Why does it have to be ad revenue though? A forecast of ad revenue alone being below expectations really doesn't say much about a company like openAi