Only 3% of traders drive prediction markets' accuracy, not the crowd
PaulHoule
15 points
2 comments
June 04, 2026
Related Discussions
Found 5 related stories in 114.7ms across 10,002 title embeddings via pgvector HNSW
- Prediction Market Accuracy: Crowd Wisdom or Informed Minority? Anon84 · 12 pts · April 25, 2026 · 66% similar
- Why Almost Everyone Loses–Except a Few Sharks–On Prediction Markets JumpCrisscross · 95 pts · May 04, 2026 · 58% similar
- We haven't seen the worst of what gambling and prediction markets will do mmcclure · 655 pts · March 26, 2026 · 51% similar
- Who wins and who loses in prediction markets? Evidence from Polymarket vcf · 141 pts · May 21, 2026 · 50% similar
- Prediction markets are breaking the news and becoming their own beat gnabgib · 15 pts · April 21, 2026 · 49% similar
Discussion Highlights (1 comments)
autoexec
> The findings challenge the idea that prediction markets work because of crowds. They appear to work because of who is informed. That sounds about right. A small number of people with inside info are gaming the system itself and everybody else is just gambling.