Oil at $150 will trigger global recession, says boss of financial BlackRock

r0fl

It’ll trigger a lot of political pressure which in turn will trigger more war Expensive oil has a lot of repercussions

decimalenough

Misleading headline: Fink said that " years of above $100, closer to $150 oil" would trigger recession. Which, well, duh, but it's quite different from the implication that even a momentary peak would trigger that. I also do wonder if oil prices would actually stay high even if the Strait of Hormuz stayed closed for years. Many analysts think that as a planet we're already past peak oil demand, and the price spike has turbocharged the transition to EVs (where I live, every EV dealer is flat out and waiting times are months). High prices also spur more production from everybody else. The tricky bit is specialist fuels like jet fuel, where you can't just turn a tap to make more.

diogenescynic

It'll force American to negotiate with Iran and China/India will be the mediators. It will be the beginning of the end of the Petrodollar and likely force America to leave the Middle East. It will empower Russia, China, and India while hurting US interests. I don't know why we started this war at all other than to serve Israel's interests even when it means harming our own.

xvxvx

He lost me at the part where he said AI wasn’t a bubble…

mrcwinn

Fortunately, this won't happen. Trump is a populist. The war will end simply because the repercussions are far too great. And even though Israel would like to see the deaths of others continue indefinitely, they are still too small and too weak and too dependent on the US to go it alone.

maxglute

TBH if US had it's shit together and sorted out refinery mismatch it can coast along as CONUS crude island with WTI prices of $40-60, but that's 7-10 year resolution. On paper if Trump sequenced refinery build out during Trump1, US can afford to toast gulf oil and be relatively insulated vs global prices... well not just insulated but have huge energy price advantage. There was lightcone where US could blow up global energy and be net benefactor, I guess thank god evil is stupid sometimes.

HWR_14

Is it going to be a GFC style crash where I want my assets in currency denominated investments (e.g. bonds) to buy assets at crazy low values or is it going to be mega-inflation where I want my assets in commodities and stocks?