Global bond yields hit 2008 highs, raising stakes for big borrowers

tananaev

Finally some evidence that the system is working. Most countries are borrowing like there's no tomorrow, so obviously rates should go up to compensate the risk of not paying back.

2OEH8eoCRo0

"I used to think that if there was reincarnation, I wanted to come back as the president or the pope or as a .400 baseball hitter. But now I would like to come back as the bond market. You can intimidate everybody." - James Carville

pjc50

The war(s), especially with the impact on pipelines and the Houthis taking over more of Yemen, are finally affecting fuel prices and hence turning the global economic outlook less positive. You can print money, but you can only ""print"" oil for a short time from reserves, which the US and China have been draining.

rdm_blackhole

France is in a dire situation right now. 10y OAT are at 4.5% and rising with almost 100bps difference with Germany and no budget for 2027 since there is no majority in the parliament. There is also a 6% deficit expected and growth has been revised down to 0.4% although during the first 6 months of 2026 there was actually a decrease of 0.2% of GDP in total so finishing the year in recession is totally possible. Unemployment could also reach around 9% (15% in real terms if you count the people who have given up and/or been removed from the stats since they ran out of benefits). Finally gasoline could reach 3 euros/liter (USD $13 per gallon) before the end of the year (already sitting at 2.5 euros/liter in many parts of France right now).

skybrian

They have different kinds of risk, but do AI investments and bonds compete for investors?

unddoch

It becomes clearer to more people that it's impossible to predict the future shape of the global economy due to AI. The more clear it is, the cheaper 30 year bonds become.

throw0101c

Italian and Greek bonds now have lower yields/rates (i.e., considered lower risk(?)) than US bonds: * https://www.investing.com/rates-bonds/

32oqa9

The US will continue to starve the world of oil and natural gas as long as the stock market goes up. Notice that the stock market is at all time highs because 50% of the economy is grift now and not real. That is why Republicans go into vast deficit spending to pump up AI and worthless "high-tech", "disruptive" defense stocks. Trump (and British pound saboteur Bessent) don't care one bit if the US plebs and the rest of the world suffer. The game is printing money, give it to grift companies like AI, have family invest early and get out if everything collapses. Probably they get into real estate cheaply due to foreclosures.

podocarp

Turns out countries with constitutions forbidding excessive debt are quite smart. It's like phone addiction -- if the parents don't lead by example and strictly enforce "no phones at the dinner table" then slowly it's just gonna creep back in and everyone's just staring at their phones again.

eggplantemoji69

Curious to see what transpires with federal fund rate alteration in the acute future. Both Warsh and Bessent are pupils of Druckenmiller, but Warsh seems aligned with Druckenmiller regarding letting the market naturally settle on appropriate bond yields, whereas Bessent is being a Trump puppet and attempting these various failed interventions to artificially lower yields. I hope Warsh stays strong and doesn’t bend the knee!

haizhung

IMHO this is an effect of the exponentially increasing wealth inequality. We are allowing a tiny elite to hold a larger and larger fraction of the overall wealth, while workers, middle class AND the government are losing more and more of the wealth. Governments, until now, are refusing to tax the uberrich, and continue to squeeze out workers and middle class in an attempt to stop the bleeding. Since this is bound to not work (workers and middle class are rapidly losing their share as well); governments are forced to scrap public services like health care, housing, schools, etc. Bond markets are now realizing that the governments are not taxing the only fraction of society who owns everything - and so it makes sense that the bond markets become increasingly worried that governments can pay their interest at all. Tax the rich.