Could Four Billion People Die at 3°C?

alephnerd

We need better models. The reality is we are on track to break 2C by 2050, and there is nothing that can be done about it . 3C is a real risk later in the century. Tens to hundreds of millions will be impacted so a realistic range needs to be calculated such that risk mitigation can begin.

nsxwolf

It's cold, but not that cold.

jmclnx

I cannot get to the site, but: At 3C ? Probably and maybe more, but it is hard to know. But I think we are headed to 4C with the way things are playing out. But there is one variable, Nuclear War. I expect that will happen as the climate gets worse and worse. That war could drop us into a cold streak. After that ? Everyone gone ? This book could give us a kind of a preview into what we are headed for. But in your mind replace nitrogen with CO2 https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/1189676.The_Nitrogen_Fix

readthenotes1

I like how the paper basically says it's all BS based on people saying what they want to say regardless of what their science says. I do not like how they have to use circumspect language say the emperor has no clothes... "The four billion figure is an educated worst-case estimate, not a robust scientific projection." The only reason "educated" is plausible here is because the people making the silly wild ass guesses have been edumacated; too bad it's not pertinent to the guess.

hagbard_c

Here's a quick and concise answer: No Of course all people die in the end no matter what happens but that is not what this site is trying to push. A longer answer would be Malthus called and wants his prophecies back since both he as well as the current prophets of doom miss(ed) (or ignore) the technological developments which will lead to the avoidance of their dire predictions.

gmuslera

Predicting how the gravity interacts on just 3 bodies is a very hard problem. Now we are dealing with a very complex system (not just the climate one) with a lot of pieces, interactions, feedback loops, and not yet known important components. From now to 2050 there is a lot of space for white and black swans. The question here is not if it will surely happen, but if we keep doing what we are doing worth the risk, and that risk should not be measured just by raw amount of anonymous deaths. Personally, I don't feel comfortable pushing a system with so many positive feedback loops on warming, some even recently discovered. Then that has been a major factor in the process of disruption or change on some used-to-be-stable features of our climate system, like the polar vortex, gulf stream, and maybe El Niño, And then there are not properly evaluated fragility in the food production system, global distribution, economy, politics and society/culture. The pieces are there, will they ensemble in the worst way. I suppose that in hindsight it will become evident, but then there will be nothing to do.