California high-speed rail price tag jumps to $231B, nearly 7x 2008 estimate

polar8

Don't forget the original $33B was for the entire line, not just Merced to Bakersfield.

Taikonerd

I'm very in favor of high-speed rail, in general. But I remember when the price tag had jumped to "only" $100B, and that was already considered a scandal. At some point the state has to say, "our requirements are making it insanely expensive. We need to consider a different route, or a lower speed."

fastball

A truly unbelievable amount of grift and inefficiency.

inglor_cz

That is absolutely fascinating. Spain has so far spent about 60 billion Eur on its (much more extensive) HSR network. It has a lot of harsh terrain as well, crossing mountains and semi-deserts. There are functional HSRs in Morocco and Uzbekistan, Egypt is building its first own HSR. What's wrong with Californian governance?

johnea

If the rail is just routed through minority neighborhoods, I'm sure eminent domain can be arranged... NOTE: The above sentence is referred to as "dark sarcasm" This rail would displace a huge amount of air travel, thus, it's not "viable" in terms of airline industry losses... NOTE: The above sentence is referred to as "dark reality"

porphyra

$231 B can subsidize over 400 years of free air travel between LA and SF (assuming $200 per round trip and 2.7 million flights per year [1]). The hope is that the high speed rail would allow way more trips between the two cities, as well as the central valley cities in between, bolstering the economy, compared to the current amount of flights. I will keep my fingers crossed for the next 30 years. [1] https://simpleflying.com/san-francisco-los-angeles-flight-ma...

aeternum

Cancel it and sell what is built to the highest bidder, you can be assured that some company will buy it and complete it.

silotis

At this point it's extremely unlikely the needed funds will be secured for the foreseeable future. Even if the federal government were willing to contribute, spending $100+ billion of federal tax money on a regional rail project would be a hard sell to say the least. Most likely the Bakersfield to Merced segment will be the only segment completed. It will end up as a white elephant racking up operational losses until Sacramento finally decides to pull the plug.

htx80nerd

Asking $200+ billion AND still need private investors. Is the rail made out of gold? >Under current projections, assuming funding and construction proceed as planned, service between San Francisco and Bakersfield could begin around 2033, while the full Los Angeles to San Francisco connection could extend to 2040. Brilliant stuff. I predict the rail will never happen and only more and more money going "somewhere".

thrownaway561

They need to just accept their lost and cancel the project. I think the people of CA have given this enough money and time. It's become a joke and nothing more than a giant way for they governor to launder money. Looking at you NEWSCUM.

xnx

The purpose of large rail projects is to take public money and give it to engineering firms, construction companies, consultants, and politicians. In no scenario does this project even make the top 10 in a list of ways to transport people between these locations. It would be cheaper to give away 5 million cars!

jmward01

Other countries do this just fine and we can easily build freeways and highways. This is because of intentional sabotage. US politics are actively harming citizens by sabotaging projects to 'prove how bad x is' when in reality x is the right answer if you don't have active bad actors.

ZeWaka

Seems like California needs to figure out how to use Eminent Domain.

havaloc

Maybe California should ask Brightline to take a look at it. They've had some pretty good success in Florida, although it's a totally different model.

SilverElfin

Corruption and waste. The real problem is that the quality of people in public office and appointed by them cannot responsibly manage these amounts of money. But also that the incentives are all broken. California isn’t the only state with this problem though. Oregon and Washington and New York are just as bad. And the big cities in these states have the same problems at the city level. How long can they go before they can no longer raise debt to do things?

givemeethekeys

We need a proposition to cancel the project.

WalterBright

Musk could probably do it for $3 billion.

ericmay

This is awful and perhaps what is most awful is that this is the headline folks see, then they have a gut-reaction that because this project is so fucked up that all transit projects must be like this. And of course, there's the fun fact that many highway and road construction projects come in way over budget too. If you don't live in California, the lesson to take away here is to figure out what the transportation departments and highway lobby did to secure the space needed for highways, and copy those tactics, not to look at California's failure and believe that extrapolates to your state or area. In Central Ohio voters overwhelmingly approved a ballot measure to fund bus transit and dedicated lanes in high-density corridors in Columbus. Now the project is already being set back perhaps as long as a year and a half, because the Ohio Department of Transportation is concerned car traffic may be negatively affected and wants a new traffic study. Huge waste of time, the exact kind of thing you would have wanted a DOGE in its most idealized form to nuke. You have to imagine these kinds of tactics x1000 because once California and others see the success of rail the jobs programs that are most state DOTs are going to be in serious trouble. We'll get there, it's just going to be a long battle against entrenched lobbying and special interest groups (highway departments, construction companies, auto manufacturers, &c.) which need to profit off of your requirement to have a car to participate in society. By the way, I'm not "against" cars or anything. Have one and love it. But the primary mode of transportation in our more dense areas has to change.

softwaredoug

Meanwhile private rail is connecting cities in Florida. Somehow with less fuss. Something about blue states make progress on basic things costly, time consuming, and difficult. Every stakeholder needs their say. Any NIMBY can veto. The loudest, most obnoxious snowflakes dominate public comment. And officials don’t tell them to STFU. And I don’t see a lot of appetite for soul searching in these states. Just “let’s raise taxes” You don’t have to convince me we have a broken society where the oligarchs have too much power+wealth. But I’m also not willing to pay more taxes without blue states removing veto points on these projects so can’t easily be derailed by every dumb special interest. We’re all paying more so loudest amongst can derail and shape progress on important issues.

dmitrygr

Make corruption, appearance of corruption, or anything that looks like it might possibly look like corruption (including having ever had lunch with someone who knows someone who has heard of someone whom you pick as a contractor) at minimum a lifetime-in-jail offense and watch the prices and timelines melt.