Ask HN: What if no AIpocalypse, no AI bubble, what if it just keeps advancing?
The two mainstream arguments are the extremes, because that's how our modern society rolls. It's either that there is an AI bubble that will crash, or that a rogue ASI will kill us all. What about the third possibility? What if GPT 3.5 -> Sonnet 3.5 -> Opus 4.5 -> Astra / Opus 5.5 just keeps going for the next few years? Based on my experience, that will eat all software and software-related meetings. Once lab researchers focus on fields other than software, they will eat those nearly as quickly. This feels like the real contrarian position in 2026. What does the US economy, which is >70% service-based, look like in the next 3 to 5 years, if this happens? Does a couple labs having control of that percentage of the GDP make an economy? What if it happens too quickly? Is this the real reason why they are talking about "pacing the frontier" all of a sudden? Maybe this impossible "pacing" is due to the fact that the labs' own economists pointed out that collapsing your country's economy might not be a good idea? What does unemployment look like in the next few years in this scenario, in the USA?
Discussion Highlights (8 comments)
techblueberry
How are you defining “AI bubble”? Via the capability trajectory of AI or as an economic analysis. How is “AI bubble” an extreme? Was dotcom bubble an extreme? In retrospect it feels like a median position. Bubbles are super normal not extreme. “AI is useless and will go away” would be the extreme position. Your third possibility could happen in the “AI bubble” world. I think “AI bubble” gets framed as a technological question about AI capabilities and not a financial one. The bubble may deflate slowly, but if you eat all software or eat all other Field’s something is popping. Anthropic OpenAI and SpaceX are all valued partially as if they’ll be the only ones to succeed.
andsoitis
> will eat all software and software-related meetings. Software engineering is a job. Writing code is a task. The task isn't the job.
dormento
my 2c: IMHO, the US is already cooked. Technological superiority is one of many ways to exert influence, and foreign initiatives are closing in, fast. There's nothing the US can do do stop it, unless it can find a way to stall China's advances in the area, and this is incredibly unlikely.
atleastoptimal
If AI keeps advancing it will eclipse humans in all domains. This has been predicted for over a hundred years and it is a reasonable extrapolation from current trends. Existing among machines more capable than humans in all domains is not a stable outcome. Either AI is significantly curtailed and restricted, or humans are consumed by the machines or disassembled for spare carbon.
nitwit005
Perhaps look at the past dozens of discussions on this general idea.
mstaoru
I might be a bit pessimistic but not extreme. It's not "AI bubble that will crash" but definitely some kind of deflation or correction that will damage a lot of investments. As always, common people will be most affected. It's not "rogue ASI will kill us all" but advancements in cyberattacks, skill erosion, job loss that will damage us all. Again, common people will be most affected. It's been 5-6 years with these things, how does anyone still believe that this will usher a new era of prosperity? Maybe for Sam and Dario.
sdevonoes
That it will make a few individuals even more ultra mega rich. And then they will have even more power to adjust the world as they see fit.
tavavex
> Based on my experience, that will eat all software and software-related meetings. Once lab researchers focus on fields other than software, they will eat those nearly as quickly. I don't understand your framing, because this is far more apocalyptic than any old bubble burst, even if the bubble is a massive one. A crash due to a bubble causes a temporary setback and readjustment that slowly rebounds over time. Fully displacing even 20% of the workforce would likely cause a societal implosion on a never before seen scale. Now imagine how bad it would be if it's 30, 40 or 50% of the workforce. Full automation is not temporary, it would remove these jobs for good. There is no rebound to be had, and only a mass restructuring of society that we all know is not likely to happen would save us from near-total collapse. I don't think AI labs have much of a reason to pace themselves to prevent this, because they're the ones who will come out on top in that poorer, more desperate, more divided hypothetical future.