Ask HN: Many SWEngs out there are considering re-training
Question is what it says on the tin. I've been mulling over the state of the industry and where I believe it to be going, and while I believe there will still be a role for us SWEng's in the future, I believe there will be a need for far fewer of us. So much so that, a la industrial revolution, there will be lots of layoffs and SWEngs without a cause. This is obviously quite a pessimistic view of where the industry is going, and maybe I'm just looking for some reassurance or discussion - my question is at what point do a large amount of SWEngs have to find something else to do and re-train?
Discussion Highlights (10 comments)
guitarlimeo
Definitely. Been thinking of police school (not in USA lol) or some other public service that is actually needed in the society.
markus_zhang
I think the process is already ongoing for the juniors and new graduates? Now, speaking as a senior, a quite mediocre one, I wouldn’t be surprised if I can never find a similar job if I’m laid off.
yevhen_builds
With AI taking over coding, you can become more manager role instead of SWE itself. You can run agents by yourself on your 9-5 and still make crucial decisions in software industry.
vconnor
Let's say I have 2 years to invent a new career before I'm broke. Not a junior either, but I'd rather do anything else than be expected to turn into a middle manager for AI agents. That's not why I got into computers.
GaryNumanVevo
I've basically been a personal hedge fund manager for the better part of 2 years. I'm still working as a SWE because it's interesting, if I get laid off I'll be retiring.
cousinbryce
I’m a data engineer at a massive bureaucratic institution. Working on full stack so I can build cool stuff for people
joshstrange
> I believe there will be a need for far fewer of us. I disagree. Throughout the history of computing the number of SWE's has gone up and they have become, overall, more capable [0]. That hasn't cause a need for fewer of us, in fact the demand remains overall strong. I predict instead it will drive the need for more of us rather than less. And potentially even "better" (or at least healthier as I see it) jobs. What I mean by that is, instead of outsourcing (locally or abroad) companies will be able to bring someone in-house. In the past, dropping the load on 1-2 people would have been untenable, with LLMs/AI a number of things become plausible. And this scales to every level. The company that previous outsourced their development and could have hired 3-5 developers (but that wasn't enough) can now consider hiring them. Yes, the larger corporations might decide they can get the same done with fewer employees, or they might decide to do more with the same. I do think a number of SaaS tools might be in more trouble if companies decide to just build in-house alternatives that are custom for their exact needs. But perhaps SaaS will adapt to "source available" or some other kind of way to allow easier extension of their core offering so that companies just build a sidecar or thin layer over the core that covers their needs better than a "one size fits all" SaaS ever could. Perhaps this is too rosey of a view of the future but it's one that I think is at least partly backed by the history of the industry. [0] And at least what they're able to produce, even if you disagree about the quality.
ex-aws-dude
IMO its better to just wait and see how it shakes out rather than overreacting Think about people who left the industry in the dot-com era and how that probably seemed smart at the time
skyberrys
I've always loved animals, and I would love to quit and own a farm where I breed and care for horses. I also like cats a lot I could see myself working as a cat therapist. My children tell me I am a very good cook too and should start a business selling crepes for breakfast. None of these ideas are as lucrative as writing SW. I'm not technically trained as a SWE though I do write it, I'm a hardware person.
sdevonoes
Umm, I think the ones displaced will be product owners tbh. Think about it: with AI we need people that know a bit about everything. A bit about the product itself, the users, the tech, the platform, etc. AI fills in the details, but it’s important to not have many unknown unknowns. So, it’s easier for engineers to learn more about the product (good engineers already know quite some about the products they support) than for product owners to learn more about the tech. One good engineer plus AI > one good product owner plus AI. The former can build, the latter can’t (unless we are talking about very simple toy products or prototypes)