Anthropic's IPO Prospectus Is a Fucking Doozy

dh2022

Reminds me of the Amazon joke in the 90s (before they barely avoided bankruptcy): Amazon loses $5 on each sale but makes it up in volume.

ChrisArchitect

Related: Anthropic's IPO prospectus shows AI vision, surging costs https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49886005

ivraatiems

> If Anthropic is losing a fortune now with $13 billion in costs how are they going to break even spending $100+ billion per year? Don’t worry, their godlike AI will figure that out? It's wild that this is an accurate summation of their position here. It's equally wild that a company building and selling a technology as actually useful as an LLM - yes, I think they're useful, sue me - can't begin to think about how to make money with one. I agree with the article - they'd better hope they are messianic super geniuses, because if not, they're gonna seem real stupid when we have all moved in in a few years. The technology will stay, but that doesn't mean they will.

xvxvx

‘Anthropic is making a massive bet that AI will transform the global economy more profoundly than industrialization, electricity and the internet, according to its IPO prospectus seen by Reuters.’ I mean, if you’re gonna aim big may as well go all out. Next week OpenAI will claim to transform the global economy more than life itself. All horseshit, of course. Still haven’t found a benefit to AI in my work or personal life. I hope the crash is a doozy.

jmyeet

Here are my biggest risks for Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX that don't seem to get the attention they deserve: 1. What happens to your existing hardware investments when NVidia releases new hardware that allows buyers to run the same models at a fraction of the cost in energy times? IMHO performance-per-Watt is going to be the only significant metric here. Yes, your existing hardware will still work but efficiency is going to be the name of the game; 2. How are you going to deal with the threat of open weight models that can be run locally and/or or cloud GPU infrastructure? We already have relatively affordable hardware (ie Mac Studios) that can run models as large as 500B-1T parameters with 3-4 bit quantization. That's only going to get better; and 3. The only use cases for AI really are: a) Raising prices; b) Cutting costs, particularly labor; and c) Military applications such as targeting and autonomous drone and missile operation. A society where even 20% of people end up unemployed is one that catastrophically fails.

highway900

What never checks out (aside from most of it) is how they will raise prices to a market that shrinks due to unemployment. Can’t sell apples to people without money.

treetalker

> > The more they lose, the more they win! American zeitgeist.

treis

Does anyone have the actual doc or are we now getting articles about articles.

returnInfinity

Anth revenue has probably crossed 70 billion. The way they calculate that is, last month's revenue x 12. The leaked numbers are old.