Anthropic IPO buyers see valuation as low as $1.1T

techblueberry

But we're so close to RSI!

rvz

Still overvalued.

pinkmuffinere

Some benchmarks to compare against: Apple: 5 T Google: 3.5 T Meta: 1.55 T Microsoft: 3.97 T Berkshire Hathaway: 1.2 T Eli Lilly: 1.28 T Tesla: 1.38 T Walmart: 1 T Spotify: 125 billion

vlflp

As high as $1.1T. Where is the supposed growth going to come from? Claude has been pushed by force and coercive marketing into most software organizations and many open source projects. In 2026 the companies buying the narrative were exuberant and told employees to tokenmaxx. This will stop in 2027 because companies will find out that nothing has improved. Nothing at all. They'll evaluate the expenditures. So the market is saturated and usage is going down. Anthropic should be valued at $200 billion at best.

JesseTG

Get your tickets to Layoffpalooza 2027 now!

Zsfe510asG

Dupe: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=50394906

davidguetta

can someone explain to me the point of the 'initial valuation', considering ultimately the price will settle lated thorugh trading to perceived value anyway ?

davidguetta

can someone explain to me the point of the 'initial valuation', considering ultimately the price will settle lated thorugh trading to perceived value anyway ?

badrequest

literally what is the upside? They're supposedly worth as much as meta despite having nowhere near the customer base or years of work? How much more valuation do they have to trick people into giving them before investors get a return?

0x4e

Gotta give it to OAI for waiting. They smelled it.

lnkdinsuxs

I'm not convinced that 2026 was peak of the AI hype cycle. Arguments are being made that, with the midterms over and 2028 just around the corner, a less sympathetic administration would create significant headwinds, adjusting the valuation of Anthropic and OpenAI down. What we don't know are what Anthropic and OpenAI have planned and in the works. A large population of extremely skilled and talented people are being laid off by their employers to make space for AI investments. It's likely a significant number of them will start their own business with AI. AI is also gaining a much wider audience and acceptance. It's likely over the next few years, AI demand will grow, not stagnate. That said, IPOs are usually liquidity events for LPs and for something really disruptive and unpredictable as AI, I won't be engaging in their IPOs. Only time will tell if this was a good decision, or bad.

pinkmuffinere

Some benchmarks to compare: Apple: 5 T Google: 3.5 T Meta: 1.55 T Microsoft: 3.97 T Berkshire Hathaway: 1.2 T Eli Lilly: 1.28 T Tesla: 1.38 T Walmart: 1 T Spotify: 125 billion

HexnMarcusWolfe

They made a typo, it's more like $11B

cmiles8

It keeps dropping. Was 2T, then 1.5T last week, now looking like they might be lucky to get 1T. I wouldn’t be surprised if Anthropic delays the IPO in hopes this will all magically sort itself out but as every day passes it looks like they should have gone public this summer when things were still on the up. Realistically the company is worth in the hundreds of billions but if it goes below 1.1T or so existing investors will need to start booking losses and that will trigger a shitstorm of other issues downstream. This is all becoming a textbook case of folks know these assets aren’t worth what folks want them to be, but they can keep the game going so long as nobody actually marks the asset at its actual realistic valuation. So that’s the game underway now. How low can they go without blowing up the whole AI ecosystem. If the valuations here drop next the AI bonds and private loans start to fail en-mass and the whole thing that built up this house of cards starts falling apart in reverse. Get ready for a bumpy ride folks.

dude250711

Perhaps $50B would be a fair valuation to aim for? Imagine that - 50 (fifty) times more than an average unicorn start-up! Something they could be very proud of, and many if not all employees would become multi-hundred-thousandaires practically overnight!

ChrisArchitect

Related: Major Investors Are Skeptical Anthropic IPO Can Achieve $1.5T Valuation https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=50386597

tosti

potential buyers are discussing about a $1.2 trillion to $1.3 trillion valuation range for the company, according to people familiar with the matter. Some are weighing a value as low as $1.1 trillion These people are from another planet.

stevefan1999

Good drop. Should be less than a trillion amid current midterm fallout. The chances of more AI regulations are coming. Colossus 1 & Colossus 2 are located on Tennessee and Mississippi, and Anthropic rents both of them earlier this year. Now that Democrats are surely going after Trump and Elon Musk and the sidekicks, and both Tennessee and Mississippi turned blue as well, this directly impacts the way Anthropic to source cheap compute and data in the future due to uncertainty around the continuation of SpaceX data centers. And other data center buildouts are likely to be paused for things like power grid connection and environmental impacts and land purpose evaluation, the compute capacity constraints are likely going south, too. Worse, the proposals around superintelligence is exactly what Anthropic is looking for: slow the fuck down. Now they got the killshot they long desired for, it obviously makes a dent in the capability and capacity of their AI, hence a drop in valuation. I think $800-900B is somewhere I would say okay, and $600-700B is really where it is fair, considering the long term outlook for Anthropic is looming with a greater AI massacre caused by political factors.

xlayn

Please explain to me why my "naive and maybe ignorant" understanding of this is wrong... The bigger the IPO price, the more they earn and the more probability is for you to loose money invested in it. So say Anthropic, or OpenAi, or smartGummyBearsAI go IPO and the price is insanely high... and then spirals down to be 10% of the real price... they earn a lot of money and the public loose a lot of money. IF smartGummyBearsAI goes 100% realistic price and you buy near the correct price, they earn their fair money and people get an investment. IF smartGummyBearsAI says that they have technology to use the same machine that makes gummy bears print gpus and they are priced 10,000x their actual price the society just transfers a lot of wealth to them and they scam the society. Why shouldn't we regulate and aim for the correct price? Remember 801k money is what we are talking about

int32_64

Looking at the S-1 lockup schedule the IPO seems doomed. They need to bring in a ton of investment, and you will have massive unlocks right as the next congress is most active authoring anti-AI bills. Who's going to buy this?