Allegations of insider trading over prediction-market bets tied to Iran conflict

instagib

“all fees would be refunded to users who participated in these markets, and that positions from before his death would be cashed out at the last-traded price.”

georgehotz

There's no such thing as "insider trading" on prediction markets. Are you telling me people with secret knowledge profited by making correct predictions? That's the whole point of prediction markets! Provide accurate information = get paid. It doesn't matter where the information came from, as long as it's correct.

muzani

So I guess the new war heuristic is pizza and polymarket.

khazhoux

Why are people saying the attacks were a surprise? It was widely reported the day before that embassies were told to clear out “now!”

ardanur

Polymarket is effectively an assassination auction list, you just need to find out which low likelihood resolutions can be swayed by someone's death. But you would need to have money to start which is something aspiring assassins aren't likely to have. And you would also need the skills to launder cryptocurrencies effectively. This is also true with traditional stock markets, except that laundering real money is much harder to do alone. In the real world an assassin can't really involve more people as those people would realize they are loose ends since they have a get-out-of-jail card in turning on you. The markets could get ahead of this by stipulating that a resolution via murder will always lead to resolution at prices at a time prior to the death. This would technically incentivize a potential assassin to commit a deniable murder, but if they succeed it won't be the market's [PR] problem.

fourseventy

prediction markets need to be illegal in the USA, its total insanity.

ChrisArchitect

Related: A new Polymarket account made over $500k betting on the U.S. strike against Iran https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47209773