AI Bubble vs. Dot Com Crash. History Is Repeating

Insanity

At least the dot com crash left us with m useful infrastructure. And it didn’t price regular customer out of the computer market. Going to have to sell a kidney to build a new gaming PC the next few years.

apercu

We will see if the outcomes are similar - dotcom sucked and hurt a lot of individuals and small businesses. This is different and the effects may be a lot worse.

OutOfHere

Everyone has an opinion, but what is their rate of successful predictions?

jdw64

Everyone feels it's a bubble, but the key question is when it will burst. People keep pointing this out in so many places, from Closed loops to everything else. I wish someone would just predict when that moment will come I've seen so many of these articles that I'm actually looking forward to a YouTube video or article that talks about a techno-feudal future, where API tenant farmers become the scenario if AI companies succeed. Sometimes I just want to see something new.

orthodonticjake

What is this Kurzgesagt knockoff bullshit?

teravor

we reached a point where there will always be demand for tokens. suppose the current frontier models are final and there is no more progress. it still wouldn't matter because the cheaper the tokens the more demand there will be which will drive the silicon demand onward. consider what you can do if a billion tokens cost cents: you could create a scaffold that would literally burn ungodly numbers of tokens on every conceivable angle. you could create scaffolds that don't just generate the next token but perform MCTS then at the end you keep the best results. another way to look at it, we know that there is a document in the space of all possible documents which holds an answer to every conceivable solvable problem. but the combinatorics prohibit random exhaustive search. LLM's make exhaustive search somewhat more tractable, because there will probably exist a prompt/chain of thought which can yield it (especially when you can always get experts to poke it with cheap ideas). creating silicon fabs is probably the most reliable investment at the moment, because there will always be room around the sun. orbital launch is probably less reliable because ocean floors still have a lot of room but it will depend on nuclear regulatory innovations. amusingly, had SpaceX actually gone up it would actually draw parallels to the dotcom bubble as being too soon. note that tokens aren't just text anymore, MCP is very effective. if nothing else with billions of cheap tokens you will be able to exhaustively create endless virtual worlds with just Unreal Engine MCP - this is the absolute floor. entertainment without end. and this all with just the current generation models frozen in time. but suppose only the intelligence is frozen, suppose training still works. if it's cheap enough you can always just dump compute on RL on the MCP directly. and the MCP can be something like silicon design...

oleg_kabanov

The main trend is that models are moving out of cloud to local setup to avoid paying for tokens. This becomes possible due to free open-source models like Kimi K3 that already reached level of the best commercial models. The second trend is that AI is not mature enough to be used as a human replacement. Maybe as a helper, but even then they need close guidance and check. All these talks about autonomous agents, AI employees. etc - this is all hype that current level of AI technology cannot deliver. Realization of this fact will cause bubble deflation.

returnInfinity

not going to watch this if there is a bubble, then watch out for money supply. if it contracts because of interest rates or some random reason, then bubble will collapse.(if there was a bubble) also iran war, nobody know what will happen if it escalates to full scale war. nothing good will happen, that's for sure.