A forecast of the fair market value of SpaceX's businesses

sharemywin

Not bad for about $12-$16B in total actual revenue. net income probably: $1.5B – $3B P/E:500-1000 Of course people will trip overthemselves to buy it up.

malfist

An passive investors are going to get hosed by this thanks to NASDAQ cooking the rules to favor Elon and his band of misfits. No longer will there be a year of price discovery for index funds, 15 days. Meaning index funds have to buy it at the peak of the hype cycle. Will be a huge wealth transfer from mom and pop retirement accounts to the ultra wealthy.

paxys

Everyone is so confident in their reading of tea leaves

righthand

Wall Street, ICE jobs, bs AI valuations, etc is proof that there are just enough stupid people in this country to ruin it all for the rest of us.

rvz

All these IPOs are extremely bearish and mirroring the 2019 race-for-the-exit IPOs out there. Of course once again, you are "not allowed" to be early into pre-IPO companies which is where the actual money is made. The moment several companies start IPOing, you are already too late for those multiples and have to wait for a massive crash until these stocks reach all time lows after IPO.

genidoi

> Starship at $170B is pure option value on technology still in advanced testing. The argument that Starship is somehow an experimental/unproven technology that might fail to materialise was absurd but plausible sounding before flight 1, there were many new technologies simultaneously being deployed to a single launch system in one go. But after 3 tower catches of the booster demonstrating centimetres of guided precision of the entire stack, this is becoming a tired argument. I know the author is not making that case at all here, but it seems like one the core reasons to undervalue SpaceX is that Starship might not work out, and this all sounds exactly like how reusability might not work out for the Falcon 9 from 10 years ago.

boringg

Anyone in this thread know how much SpaceX investors got diluted when they bought xAI/GROK?

jgbuddy

Were people overpaying 30% for tesla in 2010?

proteal

It’s also one of the thinnest floats IPO’ing. They’re only selling less than 5% of the company. That introduces a lot of sensitivity in the valuation, not to mention there exists a bit of game theory around fund managers needing to join in to maintain nominal returns with their peers. Check out Matt Levine commentary, which goes into more detail (SpaceX Indexing) https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/newsletters/2026-03-31/are...

saadn92

The xAI piece is the one that stands out to me. $258B for a lab that's burning $1.46B/quarter against $430M revenue, valued almost entirely on a merger anchor from four months ago.

ChrisArchitect

Related: The SpaceX IPO: retail investor notes https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47612775 SpaceX files to go public https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47604155

bobtheborg

Having never really looked at valuations, my ignorant mind can get from Starlink's 10M subscribers to a $380B valuation. If you make $100/mo/user that's 12B/yr and that with a higher 50x P/E ratio is 60B. If you go to 100x, that's $120B.

tliptay

Grok: lots of competitors & my 4th choice in LLM models. Starship: zero competitors & potentially makes humans inter-planetary. Seems crazy if investors put more value on Grok.

lokimedes

I know it’s easy to sit at home being indignant at the internet, but how on earth does an ISP with 10M subscribers and the most expensive infrastructure in the solar system ever come out to be worth $300B? They even have to routinely replenish their “cell towers” as their orbits decay. Any mid-sized country would have multiple cellphone and Internet providers with larger customer bases and less upkeep.

Octoth0rpe

Does it make sense to value Starship Commercial Launch at $170B, _and_ Falcon 9/Heavy at $100B? I would expect that if Starship achieves its operational goals, then it should quickly deprecate nearly all uses of Falcon, the exceptions being national security launches that require validating the launcher, or Dragon launches for similar reasons. Even those categories are likely on a countdown the moment starship is rapidly reusable.